Mandates, credits, programs, rollbacks, wins, and failures — all of it checked against the only referee that matters: the grid's actual meters. Real registration counts, real generation data, real demand projections. No cheerleading in either direction.
Both camps sell you a story. One says the transition is inevitable and nearly done; the other says it has already failed. The meters say neither. This ledger tracks every mandate, subsidy, rollback, and real-world result in one place — and maps the claims against what the grid can actually deliver.
The national numbers hide 51 very different grids. Pull up yours.
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A decade of nearly flat demand ended in 2021. EIA's final 2024 number — 4,110 TWh of end use — was an all-time record, and the projection band below is what 1.0% to 2.4% annual growth does to it by 2035.
Band: 1.0%/yr (pre-2020 trend) to 2.4%/yr (a NERC-era trajectory — NERC's 10-year peak forecast implies ~2.2%/yr). Dashed reference: 2024 net generation, 4,308.6 TWh. Generation has to grow with demand; the gap between the lines is today's entire operating margin plus net imports and losses.
The surprise in the data: today's EV fleet is a rounding error on the grid. The demand shock actually arriving this decade is data centers. The demand shock that would arrive if every mandate succeeded is the full-fleet number.
TWh per year. EV rows derived from registration counts × 11,500 mi/yr × 0.30 kWh/mi wall-to-wheels; data center rows from LBNL's December 2024 report (176 TWh in 2023, 325–580 TWh projected by 2028). 2024 US generation: 4,308.6 TWh.
Any new demand — EVs, data centers, heat pumps — gets served by this mix at the margin. Gas is the swing fuel in most regions; every state's own mix is in its state dossier.
EIA 2024 final, utility-scale net generation. "Other" bundles biomass, geothermal, petroleum, other gases, and pumped-storage losses.
Pick a level of fleet electrification and the driving assumptions. The calculator converts it to terawatt-hours and holds it up against the 2024 grid. Defaults are the national averages.
The macro numbers are one question; your driveway is another. This uses your state's actual 2024 average power price.
Everything that was supposed to drive the transition, with its current legal status. Updated as of August 2026.
Every state EV mandate in America runs through California's Clean Air Act waivers. In June 2025 Congress revoked them by CRA resolution — the first time the Congressional Review Act was ever used on a state waiver. California and ten states sued, arguing waivers aren't "rules" the CRA can touch. In March 2026 DOJ counter-sued CARB, which is enforcing anyway under emergency authority. In June 2026 EPA sent four more waivers to Congress for the same treatment. Until the courts rule, every "adopted" badge below carries an asterisk.
ACC II requires rising ZEV sales shares from model year 2027, reaching 100% in 2035 (some states adopted only through 2032). Current posture of each:
Sales-share requirements apply to manufacturers, not buyers. "Paused" = governor or agency suspended enforcement. All are clouded by the waiver litigation above.
Dates that will move this ledger. Check back as they land.
What the transition has actually delivered, what it has actually broken, and what the market did when the subsidies stopped.
The $7,500 credit died September 30, 2025. Buyers rushed the deadline, then the floor dropped: −46% in one quarter. Two quarters later the market found a new, lower baseline and began climbing again.
Battery-electric only, thousands of vehicles. 2024–Q2 2025 are Cox Automotive estimates; Q3 2025 – Q2 2026 from post-expiry sales reporting. Q2 2026 was +14.2% vs Q1 but still −20.5% vs Q2 2025.
Ten years of the adoption curve every 2030 target was priced on. 2025 is the first year the line didn't go up — the Q3 buying panic wasn't enough to offset the post-credit collapse.
Battery-electric only, thousands. Argonne National Laboratory / Cox Automotive estimates; 2025 is the sum of quarterly reporting above.
EV adoption against each state's own grid: registrations (AFDC 2025), net generation and retail sales (EIA 2024), average power price, and mandate status. "Headroom" = generation minus in-state sales; negative means the state imports power.
| State | EVs | Share | Ports | EVs/port | Gen TWh | Use TWh | Headroom | ¢/kWh |
|---|
Tap any row for the full state dossier — generation mix, charging network, and the state's own electrification math. Share = battery EVs ÷ all registered light-duty vehicles. Ports = public charging ports (AFDC, Aug 2026). DC's headroom is what an all-imports grid looks like.
Every number on this page traces to one of these. Retrieved August 12, 2026 unless noted.
Data Centers — the loads actually driving the forecast · Superfund — the last industrial build-out's cleanup bill · Polygraph — claims vs record · Hub home